I expect many conservatives will be gloating about the latest Rasmussen poll showing Bush leading Kerry 48-45, and moving ahead in the Electoral College projections for the first time.

Hold your horses. As I've said many times before, one poll means nothing. I'm more inclined to look at all the polls to see if any trends can be spotted. Clearly, the only trend you can find is that the Swift Boat ad seems to have effected Kerry's numbers negatively. How much effect the ads have had is up for debate.

This will still be a close election. By close, I mean I believe the two candidates will end up with less than a million popular votes separating them.

I'm not going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for either candidate. But with that in mind, let me offer a few thoughts on what the next two months hold.

- Bush will most likely end up with the same post-convention bounce as Kerry: little to none. There will be no double digit bounce here... some polls may show as much as a three or four point bounce, a few may show Kerry gaining back a point or two.

- September will be static, with one or two point variations in individual polls.

- The next chance for either candidate to make a run in the polls comes in early October with the presidential debates. I believe the debates will have the biggest impact on the election.

Of course, there's always the "X factor". Will the Swift Boat Vets disappear from the radar? Has their impact already been felt? Will there be a backlash against the Swifties that allows Kerry to make up lost ground? Will Osama bin Laden be captured in late October? Will there be another terrorist strike on American soil? Any combination of those events could have a huge impact on the election, but for now I believe that heading into the debates, Bush will have the slight (and I do stress slight) lead when all polls are considered.

That's my analysis... now pick it apart. :)